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The Rundown

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We truly missed Yermin Mercedes for all 16-ish hours of his retirement. If you missed the overnight Olympic soccer, remember: tons of value abounds. Our Bold Bet was somehow… not bold enough. More on this below…

Fenway Favorites

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY/Design: John Regula

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – 7:10 p.m. ET

After a series-opening win in New York last weekend, the Red Sox sputtered, losing by a combined score of 12-2 in the next two games. Since then, Boston put a beatdown on Toronto, combining for 20 runs across two wins. Tonight, the Sox welcome the Yankees back to Fenway Park, where the visitors have yet to win a game this season.

Jordan Montgomery has had a terrible time against Boston this season, taking an L and allowing three runs in each of his two starts. His 4.18 ERA and 1.1 HR/9 are particularly dangerous for hitter-friendly Fenway.

With New York still missing several key hitters (Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela, and Luke Voit) and losing steam in the betting markets, this feels like a great spot to back Boston.

Pick: Red Sox -145*

DFS Value Play: J.D. Martinez ($4,400)

Dodging Late-Game Heroics

Photo: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY/Design: Alex Brooks

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 p.m. ET

By almost any measure, Anthony DeSclafani has had a surprisingly excellent season for the Giants. However, the one nut he can’t seem to crack is the Dodgers: Across three starts, the 31-year-old has allowed 15 runs — including one outing with 10 (!) — and he has yet to notch a win against them. If he can’t figure it out again, San Francisco could be in trouble early.

They could be in even more trouble if they can’t get to Walker Buehler, who has been magnificent lately, recording wins in nine of his last 12 starts, compiling a 1.75 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over that stretch. Two of those wins were against the Giants.

San Fran still boasts one of the best bullpens in the majors and L.A.’s has struggled recently, so we’ll focus on the Dodgers dominating the early part of the game instead.

​​Pick: Dodgers First 5 Innings -0.5 (-115)*

DFS Value Play: Cody Bellinger ($4,500)

Go Fish

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY/Design: John Regula

San Diego Padres @ Miami Marlins – 7:10 p.m. ET

What’s that we see? Is that… a run line underdog getting line movement? It sure is. Besides one of our favorite systems coming online here, there’s a lot to like about the Marlins as home dogs tonight.

For one, San Diego starter Blake Snell has been miserable on the road this season, posting a 5-9 record to go with a hideous 9.08 ERA and 2.18 WHIP. The peripheral stats are possibly even worse at 7.9 BB/9 and 2.0 HR/9. Starling Marte, on a seven-game hitting streak with a 1.127 OPS over that period, could eat Snell up.

Miami is going with a bullpen game Thursday, opening with Anthony Bender and likely using Jordan Holloway for the bulk of the innings. Regardless, you’re getting great value here.

Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-130)*

DFS Value Play: Adam Duvall ($4,400)

Triple Play

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY/Design: John Regula

Parlay

First Leg – 7:05 p.m. ET

Beat the Streak time. Austin Riley comes into hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park with his team really needing to build some momentum. Look for the righty to get into the hit column against lefty Matt Moore, whom he is 2-for-3 against in his career.

Shohei Ohtani hasn’t gone hitless two games in a row in almost a month. Considering he didn’t get a knock last night, expect him to get back on the board in a good matchup.

Pick: Austin Riley Over 0.5 Hits and Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits (-103)*

Prop

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – 7:10 p.m. ET

If you’re playing actual Beat the Streak tonight, we like Xander Bogaerts a tad more than Riley, but because his hit prop was bumped up to 1.5, we’ll roll with the total bases instead. Bogaerts has tormented Jordan Montgomery over the years, showing a 1.103 OPS across 19 career at-bats. If he can hit one off the Green Monster, or just two base hits, this prop cashes easily.

Pick: Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)*

Bold Bet

San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 p.m. ET

Max Muncy has been on a tear since the All-Star break, with three home runs and a 1.124 OPS over the last six games. Despite nine fewer plate appearances, he has six more home runs at Dodger Stadium than at all other ballparks combined this season. Additionally, two of his three hits against Anthony DeSclafani have been homers. I think you see where we’re going with this.

Pick: Max Muncy Over 0.5 Home Runs (+250)*

Degenerate Corner

Olympic soccer is… weird. We emphatically cashed on Mexico when they blew out France as huge underdogs early this morning, but missed on Spain as huge favorites against Egypt despite a massive chasm in talent. Then there was the U.S. women’s bizarre 3-0 loss to Sweden in their opener. What’s important to remember: the Olympics are very different from other soccer championships. The men’s bracket is under-23, which presents its own handicapping challenges, but even the women’s side has some weird intricacies that interrupt the usual flow of how these teams play. Luckily, this is just our warm-up for the main Olympic events.

Your Turn: You saw our analysis on Yankees-Red Sox above, now tell us if you’re riding with us or against us, and whether it goes over or under the 9.5 run total. Correct answer(s) gets a shoutout in the next newsletter.

Shoutout: We asked you to tell us whether last night’s Cubs-Cardinals game would go over or under 8 runs, and what the exact final score would be. David Nagelberg (@SportsGuruDave) nailed the under, nailed the exact final score (3-2), but only missed on the winning team, as St. Louis prevailed over Chicago. Still very impressive, Dave!

The Roundup
Wednesday: 1-1-0 (3M Open pending)
Parlay: L | Prop: W | Bold: W
WTD: 5-3-0 | Parlay: 1-2 | Prop: 3-0 | Bold: 2-1
MTD: 18-19-2 | Parlay: 8-6 | Prop: 10-4 | Bold: 4-10
YTD: 106-102-8 (51.0%)

Contact us by replying to this email (doug@gorundown.com) or chatting with Doug on Twitter. Be sure to include your Twitter handle if you’d like it in a shoutout.

Today's Action

*All times are EST unless otherwise noted.
*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.