First Leg – 7:05 p.m. ET
Beat the Streak time. Austin Riley comes into hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park with his team really needing to build some momentum. Look for the righty to get into the hit column against lefty Matt Moore, whom he is 2-for-3 against in his career.
Shohei Ohtani hasn’t gone hitless two games in a row in almost a month. Considering he didn’t get a knock last night, expect him to get back on the board in a good matchup.
Pick: Austin Riley Over 0.5 Hits and Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Hits (-103)*
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox – 7:10 p.m. ET
If you’re playing actual Beat the Streak tonight, we like Xander Bogaerts a tad more than Riley, but because his hit prop was bumped up to 1.5, we’ll roll with the total bases instead. Bogaerts has tormented Jordan Montgomery over the years, showing a 1.103 OPS across 19 career at-bats. If he can hit one off the Green Monster, or just two base hits, this prop cashes easily.
Pick: Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110)*
San Francisco Giants @ Los Angeles Dodgers – 10:10 p.m. ET
Max Muncy has been on a tear since the All-Star break, with three home runs and a 1.124 OPS over the last six games. Despite nine fewer plate appearances, he has six more home runs at Dodger Stadium than at all other ballparks combined this season. Additionally, two of his three hits against Anthony DeSclafani have been homers. I think you see where we’re going with this.
Pick: Max Muncy Over 0.5 Home Runs (+250)*
Olympic soccer is… weird. We emphatically cashed on Mexico when they blew out France as huge underdogs early this morning, but missed on Spain as huge favorites against Egypt despite a massive chasm in talent. Then there was the U.S. women’s bizarre 3-0 loss to Sweden in their opener. What’s important to remember: the Olympics are very different from other soccer championships. The men’s bracket is under-23, which presents its own handicapping challenges, but even the women’s side has some weird intricacies that interrupt the usual flow of how these teams play. Luckily, this is just our warm-up for the main Olympic events.
Your Turn: You saw our analysis on Yankees-Red Sox above, now tell us if you’re riding with us or against us, and whether it goes over or under the 9.5 run total. Correct answer(s) gets a shoutout in the next newsletter.
Shoutout: We asked you to tell us whether last night’s Cubs-Cardinals game would go over or under 8 runs, and what the exact final score would be. David Nagelberg (@SportsGuruDave) nailed the under, nailed the exact final score (3-2), but only missed on the winning team, as St. Louis prevailed over Chicago. Still very impressive, Dave!
Wednesday: 1-1-0 (3M Open pending)
Parlay: L | Prop: W | Bold: W
WTD: 5-3-0 | Parlay: 1-2 | Prop: 3-0 | Bold: 2-1
MTD: 18-19-2 | Parlay: 8-6 | Prop: 10-4 | Bold: 4-10
YTD: 106-102-8 (51.0%)
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