Read in Browser

The Rundown

POWERED BY

Manny Pacquiao wasn’t the only one to go out on top this week, as bittersweet as it is. With our sparkling 51.9% since we first began in April, we say to our community: Welcome to the final edition of The Rundown. Read on below to find out what’s next!

Early Bravery

Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY/Design: John Regula

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves – 7:20 p.m. ET

Perhaps the highest-stakes game on the board, the Phillies need to get a win against the Braves tonight in order to have any chance of snagging the NL East crown and its subsequent playoff spot. Maybe Philly gets it done in the later innings, but the early part of the game doesn’t profile well for them.

Max Fried continues to dominate on the bump for Atlanta, spinning back-to-back shutout outings with just six hits allowed over his last 16 innings. Aaron Nola, meanwhile, continues to have the worst season of his career, showing an ugly 6.58 ERA and 1.7 HR/9 over his last five starts.

Overall, the Braves rank sixth in runs per first five innings and the Phillies rank 23rd, and the home/road splits support Atlanta even more.

Pick: Braves 1st 5 Innings -130*

DFS Value Play: Jorge Soler ($4,400)

Detroit Dogs

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY/Design: John Regula

Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins – 7:40 p.m. ET

From a game with big implications to one with basically none. The Tigers were ATS darlings this season, covering 58% of the time overall (second-best in MLB) and notching a league-best 79 covers as an underdog. Tonight, they’re catching the run-and-a-half once again against a Twins team with nothing to play for.

Despite three consecutive straight-up losses, Detroit has covered as a dog in the last two games and seven of the last nine regardless of favorite/underdog status. This season, they’re 11-6 ATS against the Twins, who have failed to cover in three straight.

On the mound, it’s a pretty even matchup with Casey Mize and Michael Pineda, and the bullpens have almost identical ERAs. As such, we’re willing to bet that the Tigers at least keep it close, if not win outright.

Pick: Tigers +1.5 (-130)*

DFS Value Play: Jeimer Candelario ($4,500)

Foxy Favorites

Jamie Vardy-Twitter/Design: John Regula

Leicester City @ Legia Warsaw – Thursday, 12:45 p.m. ET

This is a borderline must-win for Leicester City — lest they risk falling too far behind in this Europa League group — after they drew Napoli in Matchday 1, and Legia Warsaw notched a win. Manager Brendan Rodgers knows this, so while some of his tactics have been more conservative of late, we believe he and his team let loose here against an inferior side.

Part of that conservatism has involved the benching of Jamie Vardy, who sat out for 88 minutes of the first UEL match despite a Premier League-leading five goals thus far. It’s no guarantee, but the 34-year-old seems primed to start this crucial contest.

And yes, Legia got the win over Spartak Moscow, but they’re actually performing poorly in the very weak Ekstraklasa. Look for the Foxes to get a win and stay afloat in the group.

Pick: Leicester -145*

Triple Play

Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY/Design: John Regula

Parlay

Both Legs – 12:45 p.m. ET

We’ll keep it in Europa League Group C for the parlay, and start by doubling down on Leicester. It’s one of those matches that a team absolutely should win and we believe the Foxes are up to the task.

For the second leg, we’ll back the team that drew Leicester in the first match. Napoli — the Serie A leaders in excellent form — should have no issue with a seriously overmatched Spartak Moscow side.

Pick: Leicester and Napoli Moneyline Parlay (+108)*

Prop

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants – 9:45 p.m. ET

Yes, this is some pretty heavy juice, but when you’re thoroughly convinced about a prop, a vig this high is worth it. Part of the reason it’s elevated is because it’s caught a lot of steam, as it was closer to -125* this morning. Regardless, Alex Wood has been a great strikeout thrower this season (9.9 K/9). The D-Backs strike out the eighth-most of any team, making it a good fit for our system.

Pick: Alex Wood Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-160)*

Bold Bet

Oakland Athletics @ Seattle Mariners – 10:10 p.m. ET

It’s do-or-die time for the A’s, as their last two losses to the Mariners have almost completely eliminated them from playoff contention. They’ve been atrocious against Seattle this season, but with Frankie Montas on the mound, it’s possible that Oakland can catch some adrenaline and get an emphatic win against a division rival to stay alive.

Pick: Athletics -1.5 (+150)*

Degenerate Corner

When I started writing about fantasy sports six years ago, I barely considered legalized, legitimate sports betting as a viable recreation — let alone the behemoth it’s become. When I started writing The Rundown, I couldn’t have anticipated just how vibrant and special our community would prove to be.

To The Rundown community: Thank you for riding with us, engaging with us, and listening to my (sometimes crazy) musings in Degenerate Corner. I hope you hit on many (or most!) of our plays, but most importantly… I’m not leaving.

I’m thrilled to announce that starting Monday I’ll be writing for Sports Section, where you’ll find more of my betting content and much, much more. I hope you’ll follow me there. Thank you again, and good hunting, degenerates.

— Doug Greenberg

The Roundup
Tuesday: 1-0-2
Parlay: L | Prop: L | Bold: L
WTD: 2-2-2 | Parlay: 0-2 | Prop: 0-2 | Bold: 0-2
MTD: 23-29-4 | Parlay: 9-10 | Prop: 8-11 | Bold: 3-16
All-Time: 180-167-13 (51.9%)

Stay connected with me by following me on Twitter (@DougGreenberg). We’ll see you around.

Today's Action

*All times are EST unless otherwise noted.
*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.