Read in Browser

The Rundown

POWERED BY

The men’s French Open bracket is getting juicy, with four of the ATP’s top six still in the fold. We’ve got plays for both semifinal matches, plus both games on the other type of court.

Bucks Against the Wall

Photo: Brad Penner-USA TODAY/Design: Alex Brooks

Brooklyn Nets @ Milwaukee Bucks – 7:30 p.m. ET

The Nets won the first two by a combined 47 points, and the betting public is heavily backing them in Game 3. And yet the Bucks are 3.5-point favorites, and the line hasn’t moved from the opener. The books — and maybe even the sharp bettors — still believe in Milwaukee.

The Deer aren’t a great ATS team but split strong as home favorites, covering 52.8% of the time, including two May matchups with the visiting Nets as 2.5 and three-point dogs. Plus, James Harden (hamstring) didn’t play in those two games — and he won’t play tonight.

History could help, too: Last time the Giannis-led Bucks returned home in an 0-2 hole (2018 against Boston), they won Game 3 by 24. Fiserv Forum will be rocking, and Milwaukee’s shooting has to pick up at some point.

Pick: Bucks -3.5 (-112)*

DFS Value Play: Bryn Forbes ($4100)

Playing With House Money

Photo: POOL PHOTOS-USA TODAY/Design: Alex Brooks

Colorado Avalanche @ Vegas Golden Knights – 9:00 p.m. ET

This series has taken an interesting turn since Colorado’s blowout victory in Game 1. Vegas has locked down on defense, preventing Nathan MacKinnon or Mikko Rantanen from being on the ice for a five-on-five goal. While we can’t be certain how the Avs’ offense will respond, we have a pretty good idea of what we’re dealing with on the other end of the ice.

Since Max Pacioretty returned to the lineup, the Golden Knights’ offense has really found its groove. The veteran winger has a point in all six postseason games, and his team has scored at least three goals in each of the last six home games he’s played dating back to the regular season.

Philipp Grubauer and the Colorado defense look nervous against VGK, so let’s assume the Knights put several past them tonight and possibly clinch the series.

Pick: Golden Knights Team Total Over 3 (+100)*

DFS Value Play: Brandon Saad ($5000)

El Rey of Clay

Photo: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY/Design: Alex Brook

French Open – Djokovic vs. Nadal – Friday, 11:30 a.m. ET

We couldn’t be more excited for the 58th career meeting between Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. The last time these two titans met at Roland Garros, the Spaniard won in straight sets and dropped just two games in the first two. We expect things to go down similarly this time.

Dominating a tennis match starts with break points. Nadal is in better form in that regard: On clay courts this season, Rafa has a better percentage of both break points converted (43% to 41%) and saved (69% to 60%). Both players dropped a set in their quarterfinal matches, but Nadal finished his match stronger — and his opponent, Diego Schwartzman, is stronger on clay than Joker’s, Matteo Berrettini.

Rafa is the king of clay for a reason. He’ll cruise to another French Open Final.

Pick: Rafael Nadal Game Spread -4.5 (-132)*

DFS Value Play: N/A

Triple Play

Photo: Jeffrey Swinger-USA TODAY/Design: Alex Brooks

Parlay

First Leg – 10:00 p.m. ET

As mentioned, we love Nadal to win this match, so we’ll throw his (expensive) moneyline in a parlay to safely double down.

On the basketball court, the Jazz have yet to lose — or even fail to cover — against the Clippers in Utah this season. Donovan Mitchell and company are looking as dominant as any team in the league, so we’ll pick them to take a 2-0 lead in the series.

Pick: Jazz and Rafael Nadal Parlay (+120)*

Prop

San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals – 7:05 p.m. ET

The Nationals may be catching the NL-leading Giants at just the right time. San Francisco dropped a game in Texas last night and is adjusting to life without Evan Longoria, who had hit safely in 10 straight games before going down with a shoulder injury. Washington hits Anthony Desclafani well, putting ace Max Scherzer in great position to notch his second win in a row.

Pick: Max Scherzer to Record a Win -106*

Bold Bet

French Open – Zverev vs. Tsitsipas – 8:50 a.m. ET

Stefanos Tsitsipas has continued to show why he’s emerging as one of the best clay players in the world, taking down Daniil Medvedev in straight sets. Sascha Zverev is no slouch on the surface himself, but he’s struggled at times against lesser competition in the early rounds of this tournament. We’ll be bold and say that Tsitsipas takes this one home in straight sets again.

Pick: Stefanos Tsitsipas to Win 3-0 (+195)*

Degenerate Corner

Sometimes, it feels like you just can’t catch a break. Yesterday, after hitting on a Djokovic win for the first leg of our parlay, we just needed the Rays to take home a dub. Tampa Bay went down early, then stormed back to send it to extras. The Nationals took a two-run lead, then the Rays tied it again — only to give up two more and lose the game in the 11th. Heartbreaking as that is, you can’t let it affect your betting mindset. Onwards and upwards.

Your Turn: Pick the top point-getter in tonight’s Clippers-Jazz game and tell us how many points he finishes with. Winner(s) will get a shoutout in Friday’s newsletter.

Shoutout: We asked you to pick the winner in both women’s French Open matches this morning — but failed to realize that one would still be going on as we were writing. Therefore, we will postpone this shoutout until tomorrow and do a double.

The Roundup
Wednesday: 0-3-0
Parlay: L | Prop: L | Bold: L
WTD: 2-6-1 | Parlay: 1-2 | Prop: 1-2 | Bold: 0-3
MTD: 7-13-1 | Parlay: 3-4 | Prop: 3-4 | Bold: 0-7
YTD: 67-66-3 (50.4%)

You can chat with us by replying to this email (doug@gorundown.com) or contacting Doug on Twitter. Please include your social media handle(s) if you want it included in the shoutout.

*If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA/MI), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN). 21+. NJ/PA/WV/IN/IA/CO/IL/TN/MI/VA only. Odds and lines subject to change. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.

Today's Action

*Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.